Release date 2013: iPhone 6 70%, iPhone 5S 30%, iPhone 5C 100%

Apple has thrown out the bathwater with the new iOS 7 interface, and now it’ll deliver a new iPhone 6 to go with it. September 10th 2013 has been confirmed as the release date for the new  Phone. But it’s still not confirmed if the new iPhone will be a retooled iPhone 6 or a iPhone 5S, and what would each bring when September rolls around. Apple’s pattern over the years has been to offer an S model like the iPhone 5S in off-years, but its recent aggression points to Apple jumping directly to the iPhone 6. But either way a low cost acrylic plastic iPhone 5C will arrive alongside it. Here are the odds of each happening on September 10th.

iPhone 6: seventy percent. We’ve upped the odds in favor of a September 10th iPhone 6 release date

not only because the iOS 7 makeover Apple has already shown off is too aggressive and too radical to be wasted on an iPhone 5S which looks just like the current iPhone 5, but because leaked images show a new budget iPhone 5 model which suggests Apple won’t keep that same design for its new flagship phone. The new iPhone 6 can take advantage of any of a number of ideas and Apple patent filings over the past year including a curved screen that runs edge to edge, a change up of outer materials to establish a more palatable range of pricing, and other goodies. And the components which have leaked out thus far are sufficiently altered that they look like they belong to a fully redesigned iPhone 6 outer shell, which the buzz now says will be gold on the outside.

iPhone 5S: thirty percent. It’s still a bit hard to argue with the precedent in which Apple released the iPhone 4S a year after the 4, and the iPhone 3GS a year after the 3G. Except that Apple appeared all set to skip the 4S and release the iPhone 5 in 2012, save for a last minute delay forced it to go with the 4S as a backup plan while the 5 was finished. At this point the iPhone 5S feels like a mere Plan B if the iPhone 6 isn’t ready to go this year. But that’s a distinctly possible scenario.

iPhone 5C: one hundred percent, though that’s probably not its real name. Everything from images to packaging has emerged for a low cost sidekick iPhone model to alongside either the 6 or the 5S. Look for more muted specs, cheaper materials, and a lower price tag, and look for its release date on September 10th.